The Rays' success in 2008 has often been touted as a vindication of the "small ball" strategy and the importance of "manufacturing runs". However, careful examination reveals a different story. In fact, it's my contention that the Rays have succeeded despite below-average baserunning.
The Rays do make an effort to maximize their runs scored by utilizing their team speed and alleged baserunning acumen (they led the league in stolen base attempts). But when one considers that the Rays were 12th in SB% at 74%, one might start to wonder if these efforts contributed to their success as much as it is supposed to have. In fact, the Rays finished the regular season ranked 23rd in equivalent baserunning runs, with an EqBRR of (-10.75).
That the Rays were tenth in MLB in OPS and third in Runs Allowed (thanks to great pitching and infield defense) was a much more important factor in their success. And as far as sacrifice bunts go (a main bone of contention with the Joe Morgan types), the Rays were last in the league.
So the Rays display some elements of a small ball mentality, but their below-average baserunning and lack of sac bunts undermine this notion. As such, it's not clear that their reputation as a small ball team is particularly well-earned.
That's my third post for today. If that annoys anyone, I'm sorry. However, you won't likely be hearing from me for the rest of the week as I go back to working 14-hour days.
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2 comments:
do you know where i can find the actual formula or a description of the algorithm for EqBRR?
I can't find much on it in the way of free content (it was developed by Baseball Prospectus writer Dan Fox in the offseason), but there is a discussion on the BP blog here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=727
I think he published an essay on it in the 2008 print edition of baseball prospectus that includes the calculation (or at least a description thereof). It's called "The Tortoise, the Hare, and Juan Pierre: Translating Baserunning into Runs"
You might also find something here: http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/search/label/Baserunning
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