Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Going Gallardo


On Wednesday afternoon Yovani Gallardo blanked the Pittsburgh Pirates for eight innings, striking out eleven, walking one, and allowing just two hits.

Somewhat more impressive is that he scored the Brewers' only run of the game with a seventh inning homerun off of Pirates starter Ian Snell, Gallardo's second HR of the season. While a homerun hit by a pitcher is certainly a rare sight, Gallardo's feat was even more unusual.

Not since Odalis Perez (LAD) took Rick Helling (ARI) out of the park on August 28, 2002 has a pitcher's homerun accounted for his team's only run(s) in a shutout victory. That is, of course, until today.

Random Factoid You Want to Know of the Day

While we may lay claim to 2009's Mr. Irrelevant, we already know that's not such a bad thing. Plus, Succop still GOT INTO the draft. The ACC's career leader in receptions? Not so much.

Good work, ACC. Your greatest receiver of all-time did not even get into the draft. You're a talented bunch.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Mr. Irrelevant? Try Mr. Important.

I recently read Michael Lewis’ The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game – detailing one young man’s journey from the wrong side of the tracks to what we now know to be an eventual first round selection in the NFL draft. Michael Oher, the book’s protagonist, is said to be such a valuable asset to a football team due to his incredible combination of size, strength, and agility. Specifically, his unique set of physical attributes makes him an ideal candidate to play left tackle; a position which the author argues (and average NFL salaries support) is the second most important in professional football. The logic follows that as the passing game has increased in importance, so too has the value of the left tackle because good play by the left tackle is essential in allowing a quarterback to perform his duty. The quarterback’s duty is to throw touchdowns, and, as we all know, the team that scores the most touchdowns wins the game.

But that’s not always the case. There is another way to score points in the game of football: namely, field goals. It has always baffled me as to why kickers get so little respect in the football universe. They are constantly admonished for their small stature and berated for their follies - all the while their accomplishments being largely taken for granted.

Consider the following. Peyton Manning’s career completion percentage stands at 64.4%. Tom Brady’s is an even 63%. The active leader in completion percentage? Chad Pennington at a whopping 66%. Meanwhile, the 2007 NFL season saw 15 kickers average better than 85% on field goal attempts. Jeff Reed led the way for Pittsburgh with a 92% completion rate. Kickers, the unsung heroes of the NFL, are outperforming their quarterback counterparts. And it’s not just in completion percentage.

The fact of the matter is kickers score points – a lot of them. In 2008 the kicking game, and Ryan Succup specifically, accounted for exactly one third of South Carolina’s total points. Not possible you say? Believe it. Well, you might then reasonably assert that South Carolina’s offense was so putrid in 2008 that it is just not representative of football as a whole. You would only be half right. While kickers accrued fewer points across the SEC and NCAA as a whole, the percentage still hovers right around 25% (25% and 24%, respectively). In fact, we can see that the kicking game could be counted on for about 6.5 points per game on average across the NCAA while the passing and rushing games accounted for about 9.3 and 9.7, respectively.

Add a kicker’s point scoring ability to his other on-field duties and he is even more indispensable. A good kicker can neutralize the opponent’s ability to score on kick-off returns via touchbacks – a very real threat if the opponent has a Devin Hester-type player. In Succup’s case, his ability to handle punting duties as well further increases his value. In a close game field position takes on extra importance. An opponent pinned inside its own 10 yard line from a punt provides the punter’s team with a greater opportunity for scoring. Not only will the team likely have shorter distance to drive toward the goal once the ball is punted, the team will also have a chance to earn two points through a safety.

For some reason, few coaches seem to catch onto the importance of the kicking game in football. Lou Holtz, in particular, was infamous for his policy of refusing to allow a scholarship kicker on his teams. In the years under Holtz, the Gamecock teams (and fans) suffered because of it. So Kansas City fans, don’t make the mistake of thinking Ryan Succop is actually Mr. Irrelevant. Come August, he might just be the second most important player on the field.


Sources:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_perc_career.htm
http://www.getlisty.com/wfaa/2007-nfl-leaders-field-goal-accuracy/
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2008/Internet/trend/FBS_trend_conf_1.pdfhttp://gamecocksonline.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2008-2009/teamcume.html

Manny Acta isn't good at his job

Manny Acta isn't good at his job. Furthermore, he appears to be unwilling to accept responsibility for the decisions he makes (decisions which culminated in a mind-blowing loss to the Phillies on Monday night), instead putting it all on the collective back of a pitching staff that was asked to do something that it wasn't physically capable of doing. Acta after the game:

I hope I don't wear out this word, but, again, it was deflating... Our offense just battled all day and scored enough runs. We played so hard for eight innings to score enough runs. You lose the game in one inning, it's just tough for the whole team.
First of all, the idea that the game was lost in one inning is preposterous, and speaks to Acta's flawed decision-making process. But I'll delve more into the chronology and consequences of said process later.

The Nationals' bullpen has come under a lot of fire in recent weeks for their incompetence, and I have no problem with coaches calling out specific players or groups of players if the situation warrants such measure. But it does grate on me when a coach comes down on a player for failing to do something he is physically unable to do (or unlikely to do, more probably), especially when the coach failed in the first place to put his players in position to optimize their performance.

I went into considerable detail about how I think a manager should handle the Phillies line-up in high-leverage situations after the Braves narrowly escaped blowing a lead against them during the first game of the season. Why any manager would leave a right-handed pitcher in against Ryan Howard in a situation where a lot of runs could be put on the board is completely beyond me.

Let's revisit Ryan Howard's career triple slash splits:

Facing LHPs: .231/.315/.468
Facing RHPs: .305/.412/.652

That's a no doubt Hall-of-Famer against one type of pitcher and someone who probably doesn't belong on a major league line-up against the other. Even so, Acta let righty Shairon Martis (who?), of all people, face Howard with the bases loaded and the tying run at the plate in the fifth inning. It's not like he left Pedro in to face Howard - no, we're talking about Shairon [expletive deleted] Martis. The rationale? Probably that Martis was only 2 outs away from being the pitcher of record. Ah, the things managers do to chase meaningless statistics. In case you were wondering, the result was a game-tying grand slam.

Fool me once...

Later in the game, Acta brought RHP Joel Hanrahan into the game in the eighth inning to pursue another meaningless statistic - saves. Hanrahan was charged with the task of recording the last out in the eighth inning with a two run lead and Ryan Howard at the plate and Chase Utley on first. Now, Acta had already used his lone bullpen lefty, Mike Hinckley, earlier in the game. However, that fact does not absolve Acta of the mistake he committed when he travelled to Philadelphia with only one LHP in the bullpen. Heck, bringing in Scott Olsen in this situation would have been a better idea.

The result this time was no less ugly: Howard walked, Werth walked, Ibanez hit a grand slam (Ibanez has the same problem with lefties that Howard has, though less pronounced).

Acta, noble soul that he is, put it all on Hanrahan, demoting him to middle relief. This decision represents a failure to realize that Hanrahan is his best relief pitcher and a failure to accept responsibility for putting Hanrahan in a situation in which he had a low probability of succeeding.

Because Manny Acta has a chronic habit of putting his players in these types of situations, he is not good at his job and should be divorced of it forthwith.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Some bullshit about a cable bill

Mike Morgan, beloved sportscaster and personality for Gamecock Sports Properties, was fired earlier this week. (Contradictory to the initial line that he resigned). It seems that it all boiled down to a personal vendetta that the President of GSP, Liz McMillan (my ex-aunt through marriage, incidentally) held against Mr. Morgan.

I sent the follwing email to Ms. McMillan just a few moments ago:

Ms. McMillan,

The shameful firing of Mike Morgan (to say nothing of the bizarre attempt to cover up his firing) should be considered a great loss for Gamecock Sports Properties and, more importantly, Gamecock fans and alumni everywhere.

The brilliant job he has done covering and calling Gamecock sporting events does not warrant the exile from the Gamecock family that you have cast upon him. Mr Morgan deserves better. The Gamecock family deserves better.

Sincerely,
Connor Tapp


I feel I should mention that, despite my relation to this woman, I've never actually met her.

For any interested party, Ms McMillian's email address is lmcmillan@ispsports.com

Bombs away

UPDATE: I've created a facebook group that you should all join to express your distaste for reckless behavior of Gamecock Sports Properties.

Please, if you have a moment, give them a call and complain about this bullshit.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Gamecocks Split Season Series with Tigers

So it's official. After taking the first two games from the Upstate Tigers, USC dropped the last two - resulting in a series tie for the season. And we all know what that's like:


For those of you unfamiliar with the philosophical musings of Eddie Erdelatz, you can find them detailed here.
Game four was a pitcher's duel - until the sixth inning, that is. That's when the Tigers broke the game open with 5 runs off USC starter Adam Westmoreland. It was all downhill from there. Story from The State here.
For a little over 2 years USC fans could boast that we had not lost a game to the team from the upstate in baseball. Well, .500 isn't bad. There's always next year to re-assert our dominance.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Quick with the hook


Putting strict limits on the workloads of young pitchers: smart
Putting strict limits on the workloads of durable, veteran pitchers: not smart

Exhibit A

Derek Lowe cruised through 8 innings on opening night against the Phillies, striking out four, walking none, and allowing just 2 hits. With that uber-efficient line, Lowe was able to take the game to the ninth with just 97 pitches.

With righties Rollins, Werth, and Utley on deck for the Phils, Lowe seemed a cinch to finish off the game... at least to this observer. Bobby Cox, as you can see from my irate facebook updates, disagreed. He took the ball from Mr Lowe and gave it to Mike Gonzalez, a lefty.

Lowe has proved himself to be highly durable while he was with the Dodgers, so "protecting" him in this situation hardly seems like a pressing priority.

So maybe there was a significant platoon advantage Cox was exploiting. Well, Rollins is a switch-hitter, so maybe he's better against righties?

Rollins (Career) v. Lefties: .287/.341/.452
Rollins (Career) v. Righties: .274/.330/.437

Not a huge difference either way, but he's actually stronger against lefties.

Werth?

Career v. Lefties: .293/.396/.546
Career v. Righties: .258/.346/.407

That split is the difference between Ryan Theriot and Matt Holliday. Bringing in the southpaw certainly makes no sense with respect to this match-up.

Utley barely has a split, but it is slightly pro-righty. So it might have made sense to send Lowe into the ninth and have Gonzalez ready to go if there were runners on when he got to Utley.

Certainly, bringing in Gonzalez makes a great deal of sense from Utley on, as Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez both struggle mightily against lefties.

An Eric Bruntlett double, a Jayson Werth single, and a Chase Utley walk later and the Braves were at serious risk for blowing a four run lead over the course of one half-inning. Fortunately, the hacktastic approaches of Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez bailed Mike Gonzalez and Bobby Cox out of that jam.

But Trey Hillman would not be so lucky...

Exhibit B

In the Royals' opener on Tuesday, a brilliant effort by Gil Meche was spoiled by Trey Hillman's decision to remove him from the game in favor of Kyle Farnsworth.

Meche (91) had thrown even fewer pitches than Lowe (97) and, like Lowe, had cruised through seven innings, striking out six, walking none, and giving up just one earned run.

Where Howard and Ibanez failed to make Bobby Cox pay for his mistake, Jim Thome succeeded, putting a decisive three-run homerun off Farnsworth on the board in the bottom of the eigth.

Though I would have left Meche in, some bullpen alternatives may have been acceptable. But if you're going to get cute with the bullpen, why not bring in a lefty to face the platoonerific Jim Thome?... or at least some non-Farnsworth reliever?

If I recall, the Royals have somebody pretty decent in their bullpen.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Gamecocks Blank Purple Paladins


Gamecock pitchers Jay Brown, Adam Westmoreland, and Michael Roth combined for a 10-0 shutout win against Furman on Wednesday.

The State's story here.
The University's story here.
In other news, Dawn Staley picked up the commitment of the #2 women's player in the country. Welcome to Columbia, Kelsey Bone!