Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Quick with the hook


Putting strict limits on the workloads of young pitchers: smart
Putting strict limits on the workloads of durable, veteran pitchers: not smart

Exhibit A

Derek Lowe cruised through 8 innings on opening night against the Phillies, striking out four, walking none, and allowing just 2 hits. With that uber-efficient line, Lowe was able to take the game to the ninth with just 97 pitches.

With righties Rollins, Werth, and Utley on deck for the Phils, Lowe seemed a cinch to finish off the game... at least to this observer. Bobby Cox, as you can see from my irate facebook updates, disagreed. He took the ball from Mr Lowe and gave it to Mike Gonzalez, a lefty.

Lowe has proved himself to be highly durable while he was with the Dodgers, so "protecting" him in this situation hardly seems like a pressing priority.

So maybe there was a significant platoon advantage Cox was exploiting. Well, Rollins is a switch-hitter, so maybe he's better against righties?

Rollins (Career) v. Lefties: .287/.341/.452
Rollins (Career) v. Righties: .274/.330/.437

Not a huge difference either way, but he's actually stronger against lefties.

Werth?

Career v. Lefties: .293/.396/.546
Career v. Righties: .258/.346/.407

That split is the difference between Ryan Theriot and Matt Holliday. Bringing in the southpaw certainly makes no sense with respect to this match-up.

Utley barely has a split, but it is slightly pro-righty. So it might have made sense to send Lowe into the ninth and have Gonzalez ready to go if there were runners on when he got to Utley.

Certainly, bringing in Gonzalez makes a great deal of sense from Utley on, as Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez both struggle mightily against lefties.

An Eric Bruntlett double, a Jayson Werth single, and a Chase Utley walk later and the Braves were at serious risk for blowing a four run lead over the course of one half-inning. Fortunately, the hacktastic approaches of Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez bailed Mike Gonzalez and Bobby Cox out of that jam.

But Trey Hillman would not be so lucky...

Exhibit B

In the Royals' opener on Tuesday, a brilliant effort by Gil Meche was spoiled by Trey Hillman's decision to remove him from the game in favor of Kyle Farnsworth.

Meche (91) had thrown even fewer pitches than Lowe (97) and, like Lowe, had cruised through seven innings, striking out six, walking none, and giving up just one earned run.

Where Howard and Ibanez failed to make Bobby Cox pay for his mistake, Jim Thome succeeded, putting a decisive three-run homerun off Farnsworth on the board in the bottom of the eigth.

Though I would have left Meche in, some bullpen alternatives may have been acceptable. But if you're going to get cute with the bullpen, why not bring in a lefty to face the platoonerific Jim Thome?... or at least some non-Farnsworth reliever?

If I recall, the Royals have somebody pretty decent in their bullpen.

1 comment:

Nick Carboni said...

That is a swell picture of Mr. Cox. Reminds me of the time Steve and I went to his record-breaking ejection game and didn't even know he got ejected until the next day's Sports Center...I think it was just assumed by the umpire and Cox that he should leave the game.